VG神棍日本销量预测：第一终于易主

Toyger

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原文配翻译：

The latest set of preliminary data has arrived from Japan. For the second week of January, all hardware typically drops off sharply. Software dropped off this week as well - only two games sold over 50,000 this week, compared to two games selling over 100,000 last week and Marioland a hair away from 100,000 as well.

最新的日本市场销量数据统计出炉。一月的第二个星期，所有的硬件​​销量都大幅下降。软件销量下滑更为明显，比起上周的马里奥赛车和马里奥大陆双双达到十万左右相比，本周只有两款软件售出超过50,000。

以下是软件销量：（紫色为新游戏）

1) 魔装机神2 魔神启示录 (PSP) - 70,000
2) 马里奥赛车 7 (3DS) - 59,000
3) 超级马里奥大陆3D (3DS) - 47,000
4) 怪物猎人 3G (3DS) - 45,000
5) 闪电十一人 光明/黑暗 (3DS) - 25,000
6) 大蛇无双 2 (PS3) - 24,000
7) 最终幻想 XIII-2 (PS3) - 23,000
9) 舞力全开 Wii (Wii) - 20,000
9) 心灵写真：附体笔记 (3DS) - 20,000
10) 怪物猎人携带版 3 (PSP) - 16,000
12) WII度假村 (Wii) - 9,000
12)使命 召唤：现代 战争 3 (PS3) - 9,000
14) 星之卡比：重返梦幻岛 (Wii) - 8,000
14) 太鼓达人WII：决定版 (Wii) - 8,000
15) 边境之门 (PSP) - 7,000

In addition to the games above, Mario Kart Wii (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Wii Party (Wii), Magician's Quest: Oshare na Mahou Tsukai (DS), and Inazuma Eleven Strikers 2012 Xtreme (Wii) should all end up in the final top twenty data as well.


除了上述的游戏，马里奥赛车Wii（Wii），wii sports r（Wii），Wii party（WII），尖顶帽与爱打扮的魔法师（DS），闪电11人加强版（WII）全也会出现在前二十名之内。

The big question for this week is what level the new hardware will hold at this week. Vita and 3DS sold almost 300,000 units last week. Hardware sales will typically fall to 40-55% of the first week of January in the second week of January. Anything outside that range on the positive side is higher than expected demand, while anything outside that range on the negative side is lower than expected demand. All hardware last week increased in the first week of January besides PS2 and Vita, so don't be surprised if Vita ends up below 15,000 units this week. 3DS in contrast will likely still be over 100,000 units this week, which is a strong figure for just about any time of year in Japan (the US equivalent is like selling 250,000 - 300,000 units a week early in November when there is only a modest seasonal lift at play).

本周最大的问题是硬件的销量会达到怎样的一个水平。 VITA和3DS上周共售出近30万台（原文如此）。通常，一月的第二周比第一周硬件的销售将会下降到40-55％。任何以外的一系列积极的一面是高于预期的需求，而消极的一面范围以外的任何事情都低于预期的需求。所有的硬件​​在一月的第一个星期都有所上涨，除了PS2和Vita。所以本周发生什么都不要惊讶，即使PSV在本周销量低于15000台。但是在这个星期，3DS反而还有可能会超过10万台，这对于日本任何一个时间来说都是一个厉害的数字（相当于美国在11月之前每周想卖25万 - 30万）。


Barring some kind of unexpected collapse, 3DS should be able to top 5m in Japan in February, and sell through over 1m units in January to March 2012. Games should continually be announced for 3DS starting perhaps at Nintendo's financial briefing in a couple weeks, as it's been a long time since anything has sold 5m units in a year in Japan as 3DS will from February 26, 2011 to mid-February 2012. DS did sell 4.9m in the year to June 2008, but that was almost four years ago already. Wii, PS3, and PSP never got to even 4m units a year in Japan at any point, while DS once topped 8m units in a year.

除非有意想不到的突然事故发生，3DS应该一直能够在日本销量榜首位，并且在一月到三月会售出超过100万台。在接下来的几周，新游戏也许会不断地在任天堂的财务简报中被公布，因为在销售了一段时间后，从2011年的2月26日到2012年的二月中旬，3DS在日本的装机量将会达到500万台。 DS在2008年6月曾达到过一年售出490万台，但是那是四年前。 在日本，WII，PS3和PSP从来没有一年超过400万台的时候，然而DS有一次一年超过800万。


Looking ahead, PSP, PS3, and Wii don't have much software coming in the short term that is 'big'. More importantly, Vita has nothing that looks relevant either for months, so the big question is where Vita bottoms out in early 2012 before PSP / PS3 / X360 games begin moving to Vita later in the year. Vita is in the classic chicken and egg scenario though at the moment - software can't sell well because the base is still tiny, and base is still tiny because the software isn't selling well (yet). Assuming Vita does somehow get to 2m+ by the end of 2012, it should be fine despite the slow start.


展望未来，PSP，PS3和Wii在近期内没有太多的重量级软件。更重要的是，PSV看起来在近几个月根本没有任何游戏。因此最大的问题是，什么时候PSV才能摆脱软件垫底的命运。 PSV目前出现了一个很经典的鸡与蛋的循环——软件不能很好卖，因为装机量太小;又因为装机量太小，所以软件还是卖不出去。如果VITA能够以某种方式在2012年底之前达到200万，那它看起来也是很不错的，虽然有一个缓慢的起步。