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With Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, andDragon Quest IX coming in the next two months, the Japanese market isstarting to heat back up.
Jacob Mazel
Summary:
Last week was an excellent week for software in Japan for the DS anda stronger than normal week for software on PS3. This week is muchlower, but a number of games continue to sell well. With Wii SportsResort, Dragon Quest IX, Monster Hunter 3 and new colors coming in thenext few months, the Japanese software situation should improve andremain strong through the second half of the year.
Trends to Watch:
- Kingdom Hearts DS probably will not be the earliest release in2009 to hit 1m units in Japan after selling only about 300,000 weekone. The question now is whether Wii Sports Resort can beat DragonQuest IX to being the first million selling title in Japan launchedthis year.
- New Super Mario Brothers Wii will be enormous in Japan. FinalFantasy XIII will be enormous in Japan. If Nintendo and Sony weresmart, they would pit these two titles against each other in midDecember. Neither currently has more than a murky ‘winter 2009’ releasedate.
- In 2009, Wii has only outsold PS3 in Japan by a little bit.Monster Hunter 3, NSMB Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus andwhatever else comes will go a long way to determining whether Wii stays10-20% ahead of PS3 or returns to doubling or tripling its sales inJapan. If Wii is return to 2-3x PS3 sales, those games will have toprovide long-lasting boosts rather than just sharp weekly spikes.
Understanding the Japanese Preview:
Rather than saying x game for y platform sold between 20,000 and28,000 units as in the past, the preliminary data will be broken downinto charts by platform. Within these charts, there will two additionalcategories besides the rounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the leftwill be ‘low end’ depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold forthe week, while to the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highestamount the title likely sold for the week. As always, this data ispreliminary, and therefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. Thevarying platform market share the sample represents is why consistentsellers like Wii Fit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending June 7, 2009.
Software by Platform:
Wii Software – In a bit of a surprise, Wii had five games chart inthe preliminary data. The top Wii game was Arc Rise Fantasia which soldabout 28,000 units for the week. Taiko and Mario Kart Wii tied insecond place with 6,000 units sold for the week. Pikmin 2 and DecaSports 2 sold 4,000 and 3,000 units respectively. Expect Wii hardwaresales to remain in the 14,000 to 18,000 unit range for the week.
Preliminary Top Twenty Wii Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Arc Rise Fantasia
| 28,000 | 25,000 | 31,000 | Taiko no Tatsujin Wii
| 6,000 | 4,000 | 8,000 | Mario Kart Wii
| 6,000 | 4,000 | 8,000 | Pikmin 2
| 4,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 | Deca Sports 2
| 3,000 | 1,000 | 5,000 |
PS3 Software – Two PS3 games charted in the preliminary data. ShinSangoku Musou 5 Empires dropped to 23,000 units after a solid debutlast week. The other title, HAWX, dropped to 7,000 units after a decentdebut last week. Expect PS3 hardware sales to remain in the 9,000 to13,000 unit range for the week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PS3 Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Empires
| 23,000 | 21,000 | 25,000 | HAWX
| 7,000 | 5,000 | 9,000 | Xbox 360 Software – No Xbox 360 games charted in the preliminarydata. Expect Xbox 360 hardware sales to drop into the 3,000 to 6,000unit range this week.
PS2 Software – Only one PS2 game charted in the preliminary data.Evangelion Jo sold 7,000 units for the PS2 this week. Expect PS2hardware sales to remain in the 3,500 to 5,500 unit range for the week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PS2 Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Evangelion Jo
| 7,000 | 5,000 | 9,000 |
PSP Software – Five PSP games charted in the preliminary data. Thetop seller was the PSP version of Evangelion Jo which sold 16,000 unitsfor the week. Yuusha 30 and Monster Hunter Portable 2G also sold over10,000 units for the week. Bringing up the rear, Bleach: Heat the Soul6 and Sangoku Basara: Battle Heroes sold in the mid 4 digit range forthe week. Expect PSP hardware sales to remain in the 26,000 to 34,000unit range for the week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PSP Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Evangelion Jo
| 16,000 | 14,000 | 18,000 | Yuusha 30
| 14,000 | 12,000 | 16,000 | Monster Hunter Portable 2G
| 13,000 | 11,000 | 15,000 | Bleach: Heat the Soul 6
| 6,000 | 4,000 | 8,000 | Sengoku Basara: Battle Heroes
| 4,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 |
DS Software – Kingdom Hearts 358/2 had a good second week in Japan,selling over 120,000 units largely because it had seven days to sell inits second week compared to two in its first week. Gyakuten Kenji had avery respectable second week as well, selling another 50,000 units. Twoother third party titles and three other Nintendo titles also chartedfor the DS this week. Expect DS hardware sales to fall into the 45,000to 55,000 unit range this week on the decline in Kingom Hearts andKenji software sales.
Preliminary Top Twenty DS Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Kingdom Hearts 358/2
| 124,000 | 112,000 | 136,000 | Gyakuten Kenji
| 51,000 | 46,000 | 56,000 | Sloan to Michael: Nazo no Monogatari
| 14,000 | 12,000 | 16,000 | Pokemon Fushigi no Dungeon: Sora no Tankentai
| 10,000 | 8,000 | 12,000 | Dragon Ball Kai: Saiyajin Raishuu
| 9,000 | 7,000 | 11,000 | Made in Ore
| 8,000 | 6,000 | 10,000 | Mario & Luigi 3
| 5,000 | 3,000 | 7,000 |
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