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Yakuza 3 looks like it has pushed the PS3ahead of the Wii and Xbox 360, a reversal of last week when PS3 wasbehind both machines. With Resident Evil 5 releasing next week, PS3should remain ahead then as well before starting to drop back off again.
Jacob Mazel
Summary:
After falling behind the Xbox 360 and Wii lastweek, it looks like the sales of Yakuza 3 on PS3 will push Sony’ssystem ahead of its competitors. The Xbox 360, which doubled its salesin the previous week, saw its boosting agent – Star Ocean 4 – declinemassively from its week one sales. Wii and PS3 will soon be back tooutselling the Xbox 360 by 2:1 or greater margins in Japan as a result.Yakuza 3 will likely follow the pattern of other franchises moving fromPS2 to PS3 – a bigger debut than the PS2 version followed by a sharperdecline in sales which leads to a significantly lower total overall.However, the release of Resident Evil 5 next week means that PS3 willlikely outsell Wii that week as well, and perhaps another week afterthat if the system gets a strong second boost.
Trends to Watch:
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OnceResident Evil 5 releases, there really aren’t many high profile gamesin Japan for a number of weeks. So how the market is set after thesecond Resident Evil 5 week will roughly hold until Golden Week, thoughPS3 will probably see a boost from the FFXIII boost in April.
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Withthe new One Piece game this week, and the trickle of small to modestreleases Wii probably has enough content to stay above 15,000 per weekuntil Monster Hunter G releases.
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TheXbox 360 is going to top 1m in Japan shortly, but the open question ishow much harder Microsoft can push it in Japan as the string of highprofile releases from the last 6-9 months (Star Ocean 4, InfiniteUndiscovery, Tales of Vesperia, Last Remnant, Street Fighter IV, andothers) is now largely over.
Understanding the Japanese Preview:
Rather than saying xgame for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in thepast, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform.Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides therounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, whileto the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the titlelikely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, andtherefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platformmarket share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like WiiFit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending March 1, 2009.
Software by Platform:
Wii Software – Only one Wii game charted in thepreliminary data. One Piece: Unlimited Cruise Episode 2 sold 56,000units in its first week. Expect Wii hardware sales to remain in the16,000 to 22,000 unit range this week.
Preliminary Top Twenty Wii Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| One Piece Unlimited Cruise: Episode 2 - Mezameru Yuusha
| | | | PS3 Software – Yakuza 3 was the only PS3 game tochart in the preliminary data. It sold 336,000 units in its debut,topping the PS2 debut of Yakuza 2 by about 20%. Metal Gear Solid andYakuza appear to follow the same pattern – a larger debut on the newerplatform followed by a much faster drop off. So while Metal Gear Solid4 beat the debut of Metal Gear Solid 2, the PS3 game will never reachthe sales of the PS2 game. Yakuza 2 managed to debut at 285,000 andsell over 750,000. Metal Gear Solid 4 debuted at 481,000 compared to470,000 for Metal Gear Solid 2. But the latter remains ahead in Japanby over 200,000 units. So while Yakuza 3 should double its week onesales, the game will likely still fall well below the sales of Yakuza2. Expect PS3 hardware sales to rise into the 22,000 to 30,000 unitrange this week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PS3 Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Ryu go Gotoku 3 (Yakuza 3)
| | | | Xbox 360 Software – Xbox 360 had three games (!)in the preliminary data. Chaos Dead Noah debuted to over 25,000 units.In second place, Star Ocean 4 suffered the mother of all drop offs,partially due to supply constraints, to 21,000 units. Halo Wars:Limited Edition rounded out the Xbox 360 presence with 15,000 unitssold for the week. Expect Xbox 360 hardware sales to drop into the9,000 to 17,000 unit range this week.
Preliminary Top Twenty Xbox 360 Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Chaos Dead Noah
| | | | Star Ocean 4: The Last Hope
| | | | Halo Wars: Limited Edition
| | | | PS2 Software – Developers continue to mine theremaining PS2 niche market. The only game to chart for PS2 this weekwas The King of Fighters 2002 Ultimate March. It sold 18,000 units.Expect PS2 hardware sales to remain in the 4,000 to 7,000 unit rangethis week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PS2 Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| The King of Fighters 2002 Unlimited Match
| | | | PSP Software – PSP had a good week for softwaresales. All three versions of Idol Master SP charted once again, andcombined to sell another 35,000 units. Shin Sangoku Musou managed tosell over 180,000 units in its first week. The other games to chartwere older. They included Winning Eleven, Monster Hunter Portable 2G,Tales of the World, and Divine Retribution. Expect PSP hardware salesto rise into the 30,000 to 40,000 unit range this week.
Preliminary Top Twenty PSP Software
| Sales
| Low End
| High End
| Shin Sangoku Musou: Multi Raid
| | | | Idol Master SP (Perfect Sun Edition)
| | | | Monster Hunter Portable 2G (Cheap Edition)
| | | | Idol Master SP (Missing Moon Edition)
| | | | Winning Eleven 2009
| | | | Divine Retribution
| | | | Idol Master SP (Wandering Star Edition)
| | | | Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2
| | | | DS Software – There were six DS skus in thepreliminary data. Mario & Luigi 3, as well as the two editions ofGame Center CX managed to sell about 40,000 units for the week. Oldfavorite Wagamama returned to the early data after a brief absence,with sales of nearly 10,000 units. Shinning Force sales were 13,000units in its second week, while Sunday X Magazine debuted to sales of20,000 units. Expect DS hardware sales to remain in the 45,000 to53,000 unit range for the week.
Preliminary Top Twenty DS Software | Sales | Low End | High End | Mario & Luigi 3 | 41,000 | 37,000 | 45,000 | Game Center CX: Arino no Chousenjou 2 (Standard Edition) | 27,000 | 24,000 | 30,000 | Sunday x Magazine Nettou! Dream Nine | 20,000 | 18,000 | 22,000 | Shining Force Feather | 13,000 | 11,000 | 15,000 | Game Center CX: Arino no Chousenjou 2 (Limited Edition) | 12,000 | 10,000 | 14,000 | Wagamama Fashion: Gal's Mode | 8,000 | 6,000 | 10,000 |
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