泥轰国一周软硬件分析。

wildpan

Japan is slowly stirring awake for theDecember rush. This week, PS3 and Wii likely sold about the sameamount, and we take a look at November 20th, when a Gundam vs. GundamPSP bundle, Animal Crossing Wii, and Chrono Trigger DS all launch.  


Jacob Mazel

Summary:

Japanese gaming is beginning to show signs oflife. Heading into the December and January period of elevated sales,total software sales are barely down from last week in the preliminarydata despite the absence of a major title. PS3 software had aresurgence this week, with Samurai Dou 3 topping 50,000 units and threeother PS3 games charting alongside it. DS software accounted for ten ofthe top twenty games in the preliminary data, and with a steady flow ofgames throughout the next few weeks, DS does not appear likely torelinquish its position of selling the most software in Japan. Wii andPSP, despite fairly largely bases in Japan were noticeablyunder-represented, but both should see increased shares next week sinceMobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam and Animal Crossing: City Folktake up two of the three highest spots among preordered games in Japanat the moment. DS of course will be getting the legendary ChronoTrigger that day too. November 20th is going to be quite a day in Japan.

Key Points:

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  Thisis the first time since June that a game by Nintendo for Wii has notcharted in the preliminary top twenty. It looks as though the shoppersat this particular store are saving for Animal Crossing.
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  Little Big Planet (PS3) and GTAIV on Xbox 360 have both dropped from the preliminary data.
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  WinningEleven on PS3 is currently the most heavily preordered ‘HD’ game andshould largely determine whether PS3 can stay ahead of Xbox 360 for themajority of the holiday period in Japan.

Understanding the Japanese Preview:

Rather than saying xgame for y platform sold between 20,000 and 28,000 units as in thepast, the preliminary data will be broken down into charts by platform.Within these charts, there will two additional categories besides therounded sales figure under ‘sales’. On the left will be ‘low end’depicting the lowest amount the title likely sold for the week, whileto the right will be ‘high end’ depicting the highest amount the titlelikely sold for the week. As always, this data is preliminary, andtherefore, not final, but it is based on a sample. The varying platformmarket share the sample represents is why consistent sellers like WiiFit do not always appear in the preliminary data. Sales for this report are for the week ending November 16, 2008.

Software by Platform Breakdown:


Wii Software – WiiMusic, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, Wii Sports, etc are not present this week.The only game to show up was Family Sky which sold about 8,000 units.In the final data, more games will show up, but on some level you dohave to wonder if Nintendo is shifting some of this software westwardwhere it will be selling ridiculously well over the next six weeks.Next week, Animal Crossing debuts, and a debut north of 200,000alongside a healthy hardware boost is probably a safe bet at this pointgiven that game has 5,000,000 Japanese fans on DS. For this week,expect Wii hardware sales to remain in the 20,000 to 30,000 unit range.

Preliminary Top Twenty Wii Software	Sales	Low End	High End
Family Ski: World Ski	8,000	6,000	10,000

PS3 Software – Samurai Dou 3 is the title for theweek, as it appears an additional shipment arrived to push sales toalmost 80,000 week one. Resistance 2 dropped off sharply from its firstday, but had a Metroid Prime 3 like debut of 28,000. Grand Theft AutoIV managed to sell another 18,000 units. Fifa 09 debuted in the highfour digit range this week. In the coming weeks, PS3 titles to watchare Winning Eleven 2009, Gundam Musou 2, and White Knight Story asthose are the most preordered titles at the moment. Expect PS3 hardwaresales to be in the 20,000 to 30,000 unit range this week.

Preliminary Top Twenty PS3 Software	Sales	Low End	High End
Samurai Dou 3	79,000	71,000	87,000
Resistance 2	28,000	25,000	31,000
Grand Theft Auto IV	18,000	16,000	20,000
Fifa 09	9,000	7,000	11,000

Xbox 360 Software – No Xbox 360 titles chartedthis week. The next big title is Last Remnant, which should launch tosales of at least 50,000 units. For this week, expect Xbox 360 sales toremain in the 7,000 to 11,000 unit range.

PS2 Software – PS2 software had a down week, butit still has a few big games on the horizon. Fate/Unlimited Codes inDecember looks like it might top 100,000 although it is a bit early tosay yet. For this week, expect PS2 hardware sales to remain in the4,000 to 8,000 unit range.

Preliminary Top Twenty PS2 Software	Sales	Low End	High End
Dynasty Warriors 6 Special Edition	4,000	2,000	6,000
Tales of the Abyss (Best Edition)	3,000	1,000	5,000

PSP Software – Quiet week for PSP software. Onlythree games charted. Next week though, Gundam vs. Gundam should top100,000 units and PSP hardware sales will likely see a sizable boost asa result. For this week though, expect PSP hardware sales to remain inthe 40,000 to 50,000 unit range.

Preliminary Top Twenty PSP Software	Sales	Low End	High End
Monster Hunter Portable 2G (Cheap Edition)	15,000	13,000	17,000
Yuusha no Kuse ni Namaikida Or 2	7,000	5,000	9,000
Tyumon Shiyouze! Oretachi no Sekai	6,000	4,000	8,000

DS Software – The DSi appears to have reinforcedthe software strength of the DS in Japan. Alongside the ten games tochart this week, Chrono Trigger, Professor Layton, Tales, KingdomHearts and Dragon Quest IX will be joining the ever-growing list ofmassive DS hits in the coming weeks and months. For this week, Kirby,Gal’s Fashion, Rhythm Heaven and Pokemon were backed up by third partyentries like Mega Man Star Force 3 and Valkyrie Profile. Nine gamessold over 10,000 units on DS this week. Expect DS hardware sales todrop into the 85,000 to 110,000 unit range this week.

Preliminary Top Twenty DS Software	Sales	Low End	High End
Kirby Superstar Ultra	136,000	122,000	150,000
Shiren the Wanderer DS 2	49,000	44,000	54,000
Tomgari Boushi to Mahou no 365 Days	40,000	36,000	44,000
Rhythm Heaven Gold	31,000	28,000	34,000
Pokemon Platinum	29,000	26,000	32,000
Mega Man Star Force 3 Black Aces	28,000	25,000	31,000
Wagamama Fashion: Gal's Mode	27,000	24,000	30,000
Nishimura Kyotaro Suspence 2	16,000	14,000	18,000
Mega Man Star Force 3 Red Joker	16,000	14,000	18,000
Valkyriie Profile: Toga O Seoumono	8,000	6,000	10,000

[ 本帖最后由 wildpan 于 2008-11-18 00:07 编辑 ]

虎纹猫

受金融危机的影响，这个圣诞商战怕是要冷清了

wildpan

还不错，侍道3都能卖8万套。

虎纹猫

8W能收回成本么

wildpan

按出货4000日元算，8万张可以毛利32000万日元，按蓝光光盘的成本是1500日元算，再减去12000万，得20000万日元，如果其中每张光盘给SONY500日元权利金，就剩16000万日元，估计够开发费了吧。

wildpan

据DR讲，GBA游戏卖出500套就可以回本儿。

Schelfaniel

PS3游戏的成本绝不是小数

Schelfaniel

这倒是真的，成本很低

wildpan

PS3的成本？也就是程序员的工资，开发机的费用，办公楼的房租，水电费，广告费，光盘制作费；而出PS3独占的话，SCE一定会有些优惠政策。

Schelfaniel

不会这么简单的，如果真是这样低廉，厂商不会在360上出游戏了。